While you’re probably thinking, everyone knows that Drew Brees is a solid player and that there’s not investment advice left to offer, we think there are some important things to know about the future Hall of Famer in regards to investing. While we all want to get in early on the next Brady or Brees to see some insane profits, it’s worth noting that there’s still money to be made on Brees. Here are a few reasons why:
1) Brees has prolific numbers
Brees helped bring in a new brand of football when he arrived in New Orleans, as the team aired it out season after season. With Brees at the helm, why wouldn’t they?
The team has had much success with Brees, making a number of playoff runs and even winning a Super Bowl. On an individual level, Brees has become the career leader in passing yards, passing touchdowns, completions, and passing percentage.
2) He’s considering retirement
This offseason might be the one in which Brees decides to hang up his cleats. He’s expressed a need for time to process with his family, was given the Pro Bowl start by Russell Wilson after talks of it being his last season, and the team has mentioned 2020 being a transitional year.
If Brees does opt to retire this offseason, expect a spike in his card values for a bit of time before they come back down a bit. If you’re willing to take the chance now, you’re certain to have the opportunity to capitalize whenever that announcement comes.
3) Brees is undoubtedly a Hall of Famer
… and we’d be willing to put a lot of confidence on him being a first ballot HOFer too. Our studies have shown that HOFer prices greatly increase at the time of the announcement. They also show that if you’re waiting until the induction ceremony to buy HOFers, you could be coming too late to the party to profit! We looked at both Brett Favre and Kurt Warner, recent HOF Inductees, to analyze this data further:
Brees seems to be a little different than either Favre or Warner though. We affirm that Brees’ values will experience price spikes at the time of both announcements like Warner and Favre, but could also see his values staying higher and increasing rather than leveling back to where they were before. The reason for this hypothesis is that he’s likely to be a first ballot HOFer, holds significant records despite playing in the era of Manning and Brady, and is a well-liked personality that may stay in the public’s eye after retiring.
Our Advice: Buy Now (and here’s why)
Brees has locked himself into the books as an NFL legend and regardless of what his upcoming decision is, it won’t negatively impact his card prices. Another NFL season offers the opportunity to continue to write the record books and have another run at a Super Bowl. A retirement decision will mean that collectors will be running to grab their Brees cards in light of the news. In our minds, here are some options that could play out if you buy cards now:
If Brees returns:
- Brees could have an average season and his card values stay steady throughout the course of the year. In this case, you might not get the quick flip that you may have been shooting for, but you’ll have the opportunity whenever that retirement decision comes.
- Brees and the Saints COULD make another playoff run and values could shoot up with thoughts that Brees pulls an Elway and wins a Super Bowl on his way into retirement.
If Brees retires:
- The Quick-Flip: You have cards in hand and ready to sell if you desire to turn a quick profit.
- The HOF Investment: You decide to wait for the announcement of Brees’ first ballot entry into the Hall of Fame and make a great return on investment.
- The Long-Term Play: You decide to buy Brees and hold for years. We’re predicting that he’s one of those players that will continue to grow in value even after his induction, similar to how other generational players have.
While we believe that all Brees cards will see some sort of boost from his retirement and eventual HOF announcement, here are a few tips to guide you:
- Rookies: Topps, Topps Chrome, Bowman Chrome, Contenders, UD Graded, and SP all offer great products in Brees’ rookie year that hold solid value already and will offer significant interest to collectors in years to come.
- Autographs and Memorabilia Cards: We think that autographs or memorabilia from any year will offer a solid return on investment due to collectors wanting a piece of history.
- Other Significant Years: Cards from Brees’ first year with the Saints (2006), Offensive Player of the Year seasons (2008 and 2011), or Super Bowl (2009) might also bring special interest to collectors.
In our weekly Cards to Consider articles, we’ll offer our speculation of the card market by looking into various factors surrounding players from each sport. If you’d like these weekly articles to your inbox, we’d be happy to have you sign up and follow along!